THE FORECASTING SEVERE ROTAVIRUS INFECTION IN INFANTS

The study provided a method for predicting the development of severe rotavirus infection (RVI) in out-patient infants using conventional laboratory examination on the first day of hospitalization. The index positivity as a prognostic criterion is proposed, which is calculated during the enzyme immunoassay (EIA) test system «Rotavirus antigen-ELISA-Best» (Novosibirsk).The probability of development of severe forms of RVI in infants was determine in 3.5 times the sensitivity of clinical indicators. If by ELISA (test system «Rotavirus-antigen-ELISA-BEST») defines the meaning of a positivity rate of ≥ 13, and we assume the prior probability of severe disease is equal to 0.24, the probability of development of severe forms tear in children of early age is of 0.84 (i. e. 84%), 3.5 times higher than established clinically. Taking into account a response is received IFA from the feces of the child on the first day of hospitalization the forecast probability of severe forms tear, can justify early therapy with intravenous immunoglobulins. Conclusions. In hospitalized infants with confirmed rotavirus infection at 24.0% of cases diagnosed with severe forms of the disease. The positivity rate of the optical density, calculated when conducting a ELISA test-system «Rotavirus-antigen-ELISA-BEST», Novosibirsk, may serve as a measure of the probability of development of severe forms of rotavirus infection in children of early age - its value in severe forms is higher than for moderate 16,7 >9,2 (t=0,97, p=0.00).For small values of positivity rate of more than 13, the probability of developing severe forms of the disease is 84%

rotavirus infection, children, enzyme immunoassay, forecast, severe form of the disease, index positivity

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